In New York City, the melting pot of the world, where tourists get a 360 of what the world has to offer on one tiny island packed with over 9 million residents, Pakistan was being represented at the UN session by Asif Ali Zardari, one of the many rats we have fostered in our gutters for years.
Friday, September 26, 2008
Zardari - Just what the Doctor ordered
In New York City, the melting pot of the world, where tourists get a 360 of what the world has to offer on one tiny island packed with over 9 million residents, Pakistan was being represented at the UN session by Asif Ali Zardari, one of the many rats we have fostered in our gutters for years.
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Hollywood - Storytales that send a message
Monday, September 8, 2008
Zardari - A fruitcake? Call the Men in white coats!
WSJ View on Mr. 10%
Pakistan's Next President
Is a Category 5 Disaster
September 2, 2008; Page A21
If there's a case to be made against democracy, few countries make it better than Pakistan.
On Saturday, Pakistani legislators will elect a new president to replace Pervez Musharraf, the general-turned-strongman who resigned the office last month.
In one corner there is Mushahid Hussain Sayed, a former journalist and one-time political prisoner of Mr. Musharraf who is nonetheless running as the candidate of the general's old party. Mr. Mushahid, probably the best of the bunch, stands next to no chance of winning.
In another corner there is Saeeduzzaman Siddiqui, candidate of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's party. Mr. Sharif -- whose record includes bankrupting his country, presiding over a disastrous military campaign against India, and attempting to implement Sharia law while awarding himself near-dictatorial powers -- has made it clear he intends to gut the powers of the presidency should he return to office.
And then there is Asif Ali Zardari, the widower of slain former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and leader of the Pakistan People's Party. Mr. Zardari, who has compared himself to Jesus (an innocent accused of crimes he did not commit), is easily one of the most notorious figures in the long parade of horribles that make up the country's political history. He is, of course, expected to win Saturday's ballot handily.
Just how bad is Mr. Zardari? It would be a relief if it were true that he was merely suffering from dementia, a diagnosis offered by two New York psychiatrists last year. But that diagnosis seems to have been produced mainly with a view toward defending himself against corruption charges in a British court.
Mr. Zardari -- who earned the moniker "Mr. 10%" for allegedly demanding kickbacks during his wife's two terms in office -- has long been dogged by accusations of corruption. In 2003, a Swiss magistrate found him and Mrs. Bhutto guilty of laundering $10 million. Mr. Zardari has admitted to owning a 355-acre estate near London, despite coming from a family of relatively modest means and reporting little income at the time it was purchased. A 1998 report by the New York Times's John Burns suggests he may have made off with as much as $1.5 billion in kickbacks. This was at a time when his wife was piously claiming to represent the interests of Pakistan's impoverished masses and denouncing corrupt leaders who "leave the cupboard bare."
It's an open question whether Mr. Zardari will be more or less restrained in his behavior if he's elected: His return to politics has meant the dropping of all charges against him and the release of millions in frozen assets. (The presidency will also confer legal immunity.) That may make him one of the few men in Pakistan to get richer this year: The economy, which grew in an unprecedented way under Mr. Musharraf, has tanked under civilian management. The Karachi stock exchange has lost about a third of its value and the currency about a fifth in recent months. Markets often have better memories than voters.
It's also an open question whether Pakistan's increasingly dire security outlook will focus Mr. Zardari's mind on the urgent tasks of governance. Mr. Zardari has sought to parley himself internationally as a pro-Western candidate, and maybe he is. Yet over the weekend the Pakistani government agreed to stop its air strikes on the Taliban, in exchange for which Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, a religious party, agreed to throw its support to Mr. Zardari. The Taliban has used previous cease-fires to regroup and re-arm for operations against both Afghanistan and Islamabad.
Then there is al Qaeda, now openly endeavoring to use its last redoubts in Pakistan to take over the country. Last month, Ayman al-Zawahiri issued a long broadcast (in English, no less) denouncing Mr. Musharraf as an American tool and calling on Pakistan's army to come over to his side.
That call was unlikely to be heeded against Mr. Musharraf, who could count on the loyalty of his troops. But Mr. Zardari is a caricature of everything that's morally bankrupt with the country's Westernized elite, and thus an inviting propaganda target for al Qaeda and the Taliban. It doesn't help, either, that they are working fertile political soil: 71% of Pakistanis oppose cooperating with the U.S. in counterterrorism, and 51% oppose fighting the Taliban at all, according to a June poll.
Al Qaeda and the Taliban feed on chaos, and a Zardari presidency will almost certainly provide more of it. For Pakistanis, this is a self-inflicted wound and a rebuke to their democracy. For the rest of world, it's a matter of hoping that Pakistan will somehow muddle through. For now, however, this looks like a Category 5 hurricane, dark and vast and visible just offshore.
Write to bstephens@wsj.com
Friday, September 5, 2008
Start-Ups vs. Up-Starts
A lot has happened over the last two years, some of which was captured in photographs over the course of 2006/2007 but for the most part, I believe a majority of my avid readers have floated on since I managed to keep such a fantastically dry blog. One of my favorite readers, who celebrated her birthday the same day as myself is no where to be found and so my incentive to keep writing has gone from 0 to 100 in order to regain what I had once towered over.
My sense of humor may have changed, but then that is for the audience to decide. No, it has nothing to do with getting married. Quite frankly, I have definitely become more of the person I would want to be after getting married (make sure the wife is reading this one), but my desire to conquer the world, one low-income family at a time is still under progress.
Somehow, I find myself in start-up companies and I think whether I like it or not, my forte is now officially working in early stage start-ups that have some slight mandate towards affecting people's lives. With that said, each mandate may or may not be driven by profit-bearing incentives.
However, I have also come to realize that start-ups are not all they are made out to be. One must remember that the inherent risk of working with a start-up is failure due to poor management. While working with Acumen, among the many essential business tools I acquired, the one that holds the roots together is water-tight management. The product can be the most inspirational, the most useful and needed, the coolest or even just some modification of an existing product/service. Regardless, it's not the product, it's the realistic strategy taken by the management that drives the business.
The agri-business venture in Sindh has recently been invested in by Acumen and that to me is a success story. I can sleep so much better knowing that the hard work I invested in building the company, the team and working together to build the tracks for the train is all worth something more than theory. The investment readi-ness stage from 0 to 100 took a total of just under 2 years.
On the other hand, a recent venture dealing with mobile payments, has taken an opposite direction. After nearly 5 years of flip flopping with business objectives and revenue streams, while others such as Obopay have successfully raised nearly US$70 Million, Pakistan's version has barely touched US$ 1 Million in just about the same amount of time. One of the key requirements to working towards success, especially in a market as difficult as Pakistan is to make a decision, work towards it and stick it through with everything provided you have everyone's vote (everynone = board directors). The second, yet more tangible requirement, is a financial manager. This is pretty easy to find since Chartered Accountants are a dime a dozen in Pakistan and finding one who is good with financial forecasting and financial management is their key job. If you don't, you can fiddle about with budget sheets and hire a basic accountant and sink your business and the hard work everyone put into to get it up on it's feet.
The signficant difference between Agri-Business and Mobile payments are:
1. Agri products are more expensive to import, warehouse, install and sell
2. Agri industry players are cutthroat, highly experienced and very wealthy so competition is always on the high side
3. Agri-Business target market is dependent upon seasonal income which is hard to come by in regions of little or no rain fall so income is scarce
4. The telecom industry is booming so any value-added product has a 100% success factor if its managed and market correctly, especially if it's free!
5. Getting an investment from a partner is not difficult unless the requirements are rigorous as they are with all of Acumen's investments
6. Consistency with your message to the public is essential. If you change your strategy like one does underwear, there is something already wrong
I believe that Obopay succeeded primarily because they launched in a market that is conducive to out-there financial solutions. The FED is tough with companies and there are lots of banks willing to work with mobile financial solutions thanks to the precedent set by Paypal. When trust is an enormous issue, one must look to the avenues where you can establish the product and business before taking head-first risks that have very few mitigants, if any.
In principle, if you want to succeed with a start-up, try launching it with a simple approach and push hard but also be ready to cut your losses when you know you are sinking faster than you are floating. For your crew to stick through the storm depends upon how you treat them and how driven they are to succeed. The days of fuedal land lords or bunya seths where one man runs the show are over and it's time to look at models that work.
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Ramadan - Pakistan's version of Twisted Metal
For me the purpose of Ramadan, although I am not an active participant, is to achieve a sense of calm with oneself and one's surroundings. The concept of fasting, I believe, is intended to teach those who have the fortune of having all that they have and to appreciate the pain and strife of those who don't have. This would all be in reference to the Have and Have Not theory, which is actually not just a theory but a real life epidemic. It's ironic that the Have's are associated with the benefit of money and the Have Not's are associated with not having the money. In practical life, the Have's don't have the pain and strife, which the Have Not's do, so it turns out to be a sort of oxymoron or a paradox, whichever you like more.
Getting to the point, I realize that the beauty of Islam's Pillar of fasting has sort of gone amiss to the average Pakistani. I took to the streets today, the first day of this beautiful month of restraint and detox, and found myself lost in a jungle with what appeared to be baboons driving cars. I am not generalizing, rather speaking of a specific few who find it convinient to disregard any sense of law and reason during Ramadan. The purpose of law is sort of an incumberance on the frustrated youth of our country. One cannot blame them since we have a Macleans Spokesperson as our apparent future President among the many other highly educated faction that has decided to take our country in the right direction...right into their bank accounts. Har Har Har.
We now realize that while the purpose of Ramadan is one in theory, the practical application has somehow skewed in a completely wayward direction, making them significantly disjointed from one another. Come the first of Ramadan next year, I shall purchase a cast iron Hummer H1 and riddle it with chrome protection bars all around and take to the streets as have the other bretheran of our fading cinderella of a city and turn it into yet another session of Twisted Metal, where everyone is out for themselves and the purpose is to drive irrationally and at high speeds to unknown destinations with no particular schedule but to appear as though we are late for perhaps the most important meeting of our life, while making way using highly explosive weaponry. This is because, well, to drive the way we do, it must be worth our lives since that is what is at stake each time we take to the streets.
Go be a good Pakistani and drive like a good bureaucrat's child with a free car and unlimited petrol while the others starve for lack of basic necessities. That is your duty, that is your purpose.
Ramadan Mubarak